| Week | Date | Result | Opponent | Score | ELO Before | ELO Change | ELO After | Win Prob |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Aug 30 2025 | W | Morgan State | 38-21 | 1455.3 | +0.0 | 1455.3 | 43.6% |
| 3 | Sep 6 2025 | L | Tulane | 31-33 | 1455.3 | -31.3 | 1424.0 | 29.8% |
| 4 | Sep 13 2025 | L | Auburn | 15-31 | 1424.0 | -19.7 | 1404.3 | 29.3% |
| 5 | Sep 20 2025 | L | Coastal Carolina | 20-38 | 1404.3 | -59.4 | 1344.9 | 62.8% |
| 6 | Sep 27 2025 | L | North Texas | 22-36 | 1344.9 | -20.7 | 1324.2 | 30.6% |
| 7 | Oct 4 2025 | L | Troy | 24-31 | 1324.2 | -21.3 | 1302.9 | 31.4% |
| 9 | Oct 14 2025 | L | Arkansas State | 14-15 | 1302.9 | -42.4 | 1260.5 | 42.1% |
| 10 | Oct 23 2025 | W | Georgia State | 38-31 | 1260.5 | +40.5 | 1301.0 | 60.1% |
| 11 | Nov 1 2025 | L | Louisiana | 22-31 | 1301.0 | -45.6 | 1255.4 | 45.8% |
| 13 | Nov 15 2025 | W | UL Monroe | 26-14 | 1255.4 | +43.3 | 1298.7 | 56.9% |
| 14 | Nov 22 2025 | W | Southern Miss | 42-35 | 1298.7 | +45.7 | 1344.4 | 38.6% |
| 15 | Nov 29 2025 | L | Texas State | 26-49 | 1344.4 | -28.6 | 1315.8 | 41.1% |